Creator: Mark J. Rebilas, Mark J. Rebilas | Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Copyright: Mark J. Rebilas NFL Best Bets

NFL Best Bets Week 12

NFL BEST BETS WEEK 12 should be a good one. I love a lot of games this week so let’s get right to it and start breaking them down. Before we do so please take the time to follow me and dailybestodds.com on twitter. @ev_ritt3 @dailybestodds @seef3ldt.

Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 (3-7) @ Buffalo Bills -5.5 (7-3)

My Pick: Over 53.5

Creator: Robert Hanashiro | Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports Copyright: Robert Hanashiro NFL Best Bets
Nov 22, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) scrambles for a first down against the New York Jets in the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

We should see plenty of scoring in this one. Both quarterbacks have hit stride and are playing excellent football. Neither secondary is a unit that keeps QB’s up at night so the good quarterback play should continue.

The Chargers will be without Melvin Ingram so that’s good new for Josh Allen. A weakened pass rush will give Allen plenty of time to pick apart the Chargers defense. LA’s defense has given up 28 or more points in it’s last 7 games and the Bills are a below average unit who just gave up 400 yards plus last week.

Advertisements

The over is 7-0 in the Chargers last 7 games and is also 4-0 in their last 4 as under dogs. Some experts have this total around 62 points so we’re getting plenty of value at 53.5.

Two quarterbacks on fire in combination with two mediocre defenses is a recipe for the over. I’m predicting lots of scoring and for this one to soar over that 53.5 point total.

The over is the play for me in this one. I’ll be laying 2-3 units on it with confidence.

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (9-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (7-4)

My Pick: Chiefs -3.5

Creator: Christian Petersen | Credit: Getty Images Copyright: 2020 Getty Images NFL Best Bets
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 22: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 congratulates wide receiver Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs after his touchdown reception during the first half of an NFL game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on November 22, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The Chiefs let us down last week but the Raiders have brought their A-game twice now vs them. That close matchup has the market undervaluing the Chiefs this week in my opinion. I think this line should be more around -5.5.

Everyone knows how profitable it has been to bet on Tom Brady coming off a loss. I would continue to bet that trend if he wasn’t going up against the #1 team in the NFL.

Tampa Bay has been dealing with offensive line injuries and it’s showed up big time. Brady hasn’t been efficient under pressure and it’s forced him into some poor decisions. He now has 9 interceptions on the year and Andy Reid should continue to scheme up blitzes to get to him.

Advertisements

I look for Patrick Mahomes and company to keep their foot on the gas and score in bunches. Tyreek Hill is a matchup problem for anyone but he should be able to get separation at will on Sunday vs the Bucs. Tampa will be without Jamal Dean, their starting cornerback who was the only one fast enough to even attempt to keep pace with Hill.

I love the small number we’re getting on the Chiefs and I think they will have no problem covering. We have seem some decline in Brady’s play as of late and he won’t be able to stand toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes.

Lay the points.

Tennesse Titans +3 (7-3) @ Indianapolis Colts -3 (7-3)

My Pick: Titans +3

Creator: Mark J. Rebilas, Mark J. Rebilas | Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Copyright: Mark J. Rebilas NFL Best Bets
Feb 3, 2019; Atlanta, GA, USA; New England Patriots former player Ty Law before Super Bowl LIII against the Los Angeles Rams at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In the first matchup between these two teams bad special teams play really hurt the Titans and made the score look a lot more lopsided than it actually was.

The Titans practice squad punter who was working for Fed Ex prior to being thrust into an NFL game had a punt go only 17 yards which led to great field position for the Colts. They capitalized on the mistake with a touchdown while scoring another off a blocked punt.

That was the difference in that one but I don’t see the Colts getting so lucky this time around.

Indy is littered with injuries to their top ten defensive unit.

They will be without Deforest Buckner, Denico Autry, and Bobby Okereke. On the other side of the ball they will be without starting center Ryan Kelly and starting RB Jonathan Taylor due to COVID-19 guidelines. Philip Rivers was also hobbling around at the end of last weeks game with a toe injury and openly admitted it was bothering him pretty bad during a post game press conference.

Advertisements

The end of November going into December is Derrick Henry’s sweet spot. He starts to get stronger as defenses get banged up and weaker. The Colts being completely banged up will allow Henry to have a big day on the ground.

Titans run game will open up the play action for the Ryan Tannehill to A.J. Brown connection. Brown is good for 1 or 2 big plays a game down field and he’s a threat to take it to the house anytime he touches the ball.

Injuries on both sides of the ball for the Colts will be their overall down fall this game.

I’m taking the points with the Titans and I will also be sprinkling some of my bank roll on the money line at +160.

Moneyline Parlay

Titans +160

Panthers +143

Cardinals -128

$100.00 bet to WIN $1025.39 to PAYOUT $1,125.39

Advertisements

5 Team Parlay

Raiders -3.5

Browns -6.5

Bills/Chargers-OVER 53.5

49ers +7.5

Seahawks/Eagles-Under 49.5

On the outside looking in: Ari -2.5, Giants -6.5, CLE/JAX-UNDER, MIN/CAR-OVER, GB/CHI-UNDER

Well that will do it for NFL WEEK 12 best bets. Good luck to all of you making your way to the counters this weekend. Please remember to follow me on twitter @ev_ritt3 and be sure to tune into dailybestodds.com for all things sports! Stay tuned for next weeks NFL BEST BETS WEEK 13. Lets cash some tickets!

%d bloggers like this: