NFL BEST BETS week 11 is already here! I can’t believe how fast the NFL season is flying by. Anyway, before jumping into the stats and trends of the upcoming week, as usual, lets recap last weeks bets.
Starting out on a positive note. The Buccaneers rolled just as I thought they would, beating the Panthers 46-23. Luckily this was my heaviest unit play of the weekend because it made up for the games I missed on.
After finding success late in his last two games I thought Drew Lock would be able to put it all together for 4 quarters. Boy was I wrong. The Las Vegas Raiders had other plans for Lock and company.
The Raiders rushed a total of 41 times for over 200 yards! The defense picked Lock off 4 times and proved to any doubters, myself included, if they can get their run game going they will be a tough team to compete with for a full 60 minutes.
Luckily the Broncos had just burned me the week before so I was hesitant to have large liability on them.
I’m not sure Lock can succeed against NFL defenses unless they strictly play prevent. It’s safe to fade the Broncos from hear on out until we see some better play on both sides of the ball.
Speaking of fading teams, the Eagles also may soon be added to that list.
Carson Wentz can’t seem to find a rhythm, he’s making all the wrong reads and running the ball when he should be keeping his eyes down field.
The Giants defense has been playing fairly well all year. Though in past, the Eagles have owned them that clearly was not the case this past Sunday. Wayne Gallman and Daniel Jones combined for 3 touchdowns and over 100 yards against a fairly stout run defense in Philly.
I definitely did not see this one coming and went a little heavier on the Eagles then I would of liked to.
The Eagles do have most of their roster back healthy, so I’m not going to completely stay away just yet. I still think there’s value to be had in betting the Eagles, especially with there upcoming schedule.
Ok let’s say “goodbye” once and for all to week 10 and “hello, NFL BEST BETS WEEK 11”. Before we dive in, as usual, please follow me on twitter and of course dailybestodds.com for all things sports! @ev_ritt3 @seef3ldt @dailybestodds
Miami Dolphins -3.5 (6-3) @ Denver Broncos +3.5 (3-6)
My Pick: Dolphins -3.5
It took me a little while to come around on this Miami Dolphins team but man have they looked great as of late. They’re on an impressive 5 game win streak and their defense has caught fire.
Miami can beat you in all three phases of the game but they are playing exceptionally well on defense and special teams. Having a top-scoring defense has allowed Tua to transition smoothly into his starting role. He hasn’t been forced into having to do anything but make the right read and do his best not to turn the ball over. Both of which he has been efficient at since taking over for journey man Ryan Fitzpatrick.
As much of this bet being a play on how well the Dolphins have been over this 5 game win streak, the Broncos egregious overall play has a lot to do with it as well.
The Broncos are are only scoring 20.7 points per game, good for bottom 5 in the NFL. They’re also a league worst in offensive DVOA.
Two weeks ago it seemed like Drew lock maybe was starting to figure things out somewhat. That quickly fell to the waste side and him not being the quarterback of the future for the Denver Broncos is quickly becoming more and more apparent.
Lock is only completing 55% of his passes and is 32nd in QBR (36.3). He’s coming off a 4 interception game against a bottom tier defense in the Raiders. What’s he going to do against a red-hot defense like the Dolphins who disguise coverages, bring lots of pressure and confusing blitzes.
I love the value we’re getting on the Dolphins here. They’re 6-1 ATS vs teams with a losing record, 7-1 in their last 8 ATS against the Broncos overall and 4-0 in their last 4 playing in Denver.
Miami is playing great football. At some point the scoring on defense and special teams will regress to the mean, so against a better team I may be a little more cautious but not against the Broncos.
The Broncos will get out coached and outplayed on Sunday. I’m going to up my action on this one. Lay the points with the Dolphins.
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (8-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 (6-3)
My Pick: Chiefs -7.5
The Chiefs only have one loss this season, any guesses who that loss came from? If you guessed the Las Vegas Raiders then you were absolutely spot on. The Raiders were victorious in their first matchup vs the Chiefs this season back in week 5 (40-32-Final Score).
Trust me, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have been like mad scientist during their bye week, scheming up the ultimate gameplan to get their revenge.
As of late the Raiders have been eating off turnovers. Unfortunately for them, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs don’t turn the ball over often. They will have to find other ways to win.
The Raiders will most likely look to get Josh Jacobs rolling again coming off his huge game last week. You can only stick to your run game so long against the Chiefs due to how fast they can score. Kansas City’s quick strike offense forces teams to have to throw the ball and most of the time play catch up.
I’m pretty sure Derek Carr can’t stand toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes and although they were able to find success earlier in the year, that will not be the case for this Sunday Night Football matchup.
Andy Reid is an impressive 18-3 when coming off a BYE!
I don’t need numbers to back this play up though. Patrick Mahomes will be zeroed in and ready to take it to the Raiders. Trust me, he has had this one marked on his calendar since the Raiders took their victory laps in the team buses following their week 5 win.
I’m confident the defending Super Bowl Champions absolutely destroy the Raiders. I will be taking the points and may sprinkle a little action on the OVER as well. Go Chiefs!
Green Bay Packers +1.5 (7-2) @ Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (6-3)
My Pick: Packers +1.5
Last weeks loss to the Jaguars has the market undervaluing Green Bay. Before the loss the look ahead line had the Packers as the favorite against the Colts. So I love getting points especially now that Devante Adams and Jaire Alexander will each be a full go for the game.
Green Bay in my opinion is the overall more talented team. It’s no secret the Colts have a great defense but Devante Adams will be their toughest receiver match up yet. The Colts also don’t have a true number one receiver any longer with the decline of T.Y. Hilton.
Rookie Michael Pittman did have a breakout game last week but we’re yet to see him maintain that level of production through multiple games. Jaire Alexander is Pro Football Focus #1 ranked cornerback so it will be a long day for the Colts receiver who ends up drawing his matchup.
Pretty much any metric or statistic you look into has the Colts as a top tier defensive unit. If you dig into their schedule a bit more though you will see they have had a pretty easy strength of schedule.
Their six wins have came against the Bengals, Bears, Jets, Vikings, Lions and Titans. Only one of those quarterbacks are top ten in QBR (Ryan Tannehill).
They now have to face Aaron Rodgers who is number one in QBR (84.7) and a quarterback rating of 116.4. Rodgers is second in the league in touchdowns leading an offense who is also second in offensive DVOA.
Rodgers is back to his MVP form and he’s getting points? Anytime I can get Rodgers and this offense as an underdog I will take it.
Under head coach Matt LaFleur Green Bay is 5-1 as an under dog straight up and against the spread.
I’m not convince the Colts defense will be able to slow down the Packers offense. In turn I don’t believe Rivers has it in him offensively to keep up, especially with their running back by committee approach struggling.
This is the battle of two veteran quarterbacks and I’ll take the one who has not only one a Super Bowl in the past but who is also third in MVP votes.
Getting plus money on Green Bay is the play for me and I will also be putting a few units on the money line.
$100.00 bet to win $578.10 to payout $678.10
On the outside looking in: Steelers -10, Cowboys +7.5, Saints/Falcons-UNDER 50.5
That will do it for this weeks NFL week 11 best bets. I’m doing some traveling so I won’t have as much action on this weeks games as I typically like to. Either way good luck to all of you making your way to the counters this weekend. Please take the time to follow me on twitter @ev_ritt3 and be sure to tune into dailybestodds.com for all things sports! Stay tuned for next weeks NFL best bets week 12.