Last week was a tough one to say the least. The Colts were our only best bet to cover while the Ravens and the Bears/Saints-under slipped away. The Ravens struggled against the undefeated Steelers, even with two weeks to prepare and the Bears/Saints-under was there for the taking, right up until late in the fourth quarter.Lets look to bounce back in a big way with our NFL best bets for week 9.
Before we do so, as always lets go over a quick recap of last weeks card.
It’s safe to say Lamar Jackson is having trouble finding his groove this season and his struggles continued this past Sunday against his divisional foe, the Pittsburgh Steelers. He opened the game with a pick six, threw another one in the 3rd quarter and then only down 4 points, lost a fumble with 2 minutes left in the game.
While it wasn’t all on Jackson, the Ravens offense is only going to go as far as he can take them. It was a bad day all around for the Ravens and definitely a bad day to have them on your bet slip.
We were on the UNDER (O/U-44.5) in the Bears/Saints game and to be honest that was the right bet. Sometimes things just don’t pan out.
New Orleans was up 23-20 with 1:38 to go in the 4th quarter. They had Nick Foles in a 4th and 8 situation but couldn’t come up with the stop. If the Saints could of stopped them, they would of then been able to run the clock out. Instead, Foles converted, which lead to a made 51 yard field goal by Cairo Santos that tied the game 23-23 with 13 seconds left and sent the score over the total.
We definitely had some bad beats this past week but trust me it happens. I’ve put the time and research in this week to do what I can to make sure we’re on the right side of things in week 9. Before we breakdown my best bets for this week, please take the time to follow me and of course dailybestodds.com on twitter.com for all your sports related content. @evritt3 @seef3ldt @dailybestodds.
Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 (4-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 (2-5)
My Pick: Chargers -1.5
Personally, I love the Chargers in this spot. I think everyone will shy away from them due to their 2-5 record and the fact they have blown some pretty sizable leads this season. Even though they somehow find ways to blow these games, they still have held leads over the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints, which says a lot about the overall make up of this team.
Just imagine what this line would be if they didn’t blow a 24-3 third quarter lead last week in Denver.
Justin Herbert is playing lights out and in my opinion should win ROOKIE OF THE YEAR. The Raiders are 27th in passing defense according to football outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) so I don’t seem them being able to slow him down.
Josh Jacobs is coming off a 30 touch game last week against Cleveland and still has a lingering knee issue. Las Vegas will be fielding a beat up offensive line against a great Chargers pass-rush so it could be a long day for Jacobs and Gruden’s rushing attack.
82% of the money is coming in on the Raiders, so that should tell you how this Chargers team is perceived by the public right now. This line could could even move to +1 or even +2 but I would lay as much as -2.5 on the Chargers.
There’s no way LA can continue to blow these games, at some point they will regress to the mean. They have the better team and I think overall talent is the difference in this game.
We’re getting great value on the Chargers after last weeks loss to the Broncos, lay the points.
New England Patriots -7.5/-9 (2-5) @ New York Jets +7.5/9 (0-8)
My Pick: Under 41.5
This game features two seemingly broken offenses. Cam Newton’s play has been horrific since being diagnosed with the corona virus. He’s turning the ball over consistently and in meaningful spots, costing his team a loss in Buffalo last week.
I think Newton’s struggles and lack of wide receiver depth will force the Patriots into a run-heavy approach. The Jets do one thing well and that’s stop the run. They rank 10th in both rush defense DVOA and yards per rush allowed. That should help keep points off the board.
As for the Jets offensively, well it’s been an absolute disaster.
They have only scored 10 points or less in five of their last 6 games, totaling 36 points COMBINED and only ONE offensive touchdown in that stretch. They rank last in DVOA, points per drive, third down success rate and redzone success rate. (32nd vs the pass/29th vs the run in DVOA)
Bill Belichick’s team has their own offensive struggles as I just eluded to but I expect he’ll be able to come up with a defensive game plan to stop the leagues worst offense.
Two broken offenses and a run-heavy approach from the Patriots should keep this one well under the total. The UNDER is the play and one of my most confident bets I have placed all season.
Carolina Panthers +11.5 (3-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs -11.5 (7-1)
My Pick: Panthers +11.5
Teddy Bridgewater is the king against the spread as an under dog. Check out these statistics on Teddy 2 gloves:
He’s 19-4 ATS as an under dog in his career and 17-3 on the road.
More numbers to support him ATS…
All Situations: 31-11 ATS (44.6% ROI)
Under Dog: 21-5 ATS (58% ROI)
Visitor: 17-3 ATS (65% ROI)
Road Under Dog: 16-2 ATS (73% ROI)
When I found those numbers from my guys at the action network I was blown away. There’s no way I’m not taking +11.5 points with those statistics even against the defending Super Bowl Champions.
The Panthers also get their number one playmaker back this week in Christian McCaffrey. For all the things the Chiefs do exceptionally well, they do struggle against the run. Getting CMC back will open up the play book for Joe Brady and take some pressure off Bridgewater, which should allow them to keep this one closer than expected.
The Panthers have also only lost once all year and Bridgewater is notorious for making the right read and protecting the ball.
Trust in Teddy is the play here. Give me the +11.5 points and I’ll make it a best bet.
$100.00 bet to win $722.92 to Payout $822.92
5 Team Parlay
SEA/BUF OVER 54.5
Patriots Under 42.5
$100 bet to win $2,200 to payout $2,300 (22/1 odds)
Outside looking in: Bears +5, Lions + 4.5, SEA -3.5, Texans -7, KC/CAR OVER 52.5, TEN/CHI UNDER 46.5,
Well that will do it for this weeks NFL BEST BETS WEEK 9. Let’s hope we can bounce back from last weeks tough losses. As, always thanks for tuning in. Feel free to add me on twitter.com @evritt3 and be sure to check out dailybestodds.com
Fun Fact/Trend of the Week: It pains me to say….The Dallas Cowboys (0-8 ATS) have tied the most consecutive games without a cover to begin a season in the past 35 seasons. The other two teams to manage this embarrassing stat were the 2003 Oakland Raiders and the 1991 Cincinnati Bengals.
Good luck to all of you making your way to the counter this Sunday. Stay tuned for my NFL week 10 best bets against the spread.