Before breaking down this weeks NFL best bets for week 8 lets take some time to reflect on last weeks. I hope some of you took a leap of faith and trailed me because we caught absolute fire in week 7!
All three of our best bets hit; Packers -3.5, Browns -3, and the Chiefs -7. We had the Steelers, Lions and 49er’s on a money line parlay that cashed. We also had a 5 team parlay that consisted of Tampa Bay -5, Kansas City -7, Steelers +1, CHI/LA Under and the SEA/ARI Over that ended up cashing as well.
Absolutely incredible and I hope to keep it going this week. Before we breakdown my NFL best bets for week 8 though, please take the time to follow me and of course dailybestodds.com on twitter.com for all your sports related content. @evritt3 @seef3ldt @dailybestodds.com
Colts -2.5 @ Detroit +2.5
My Pick: Colts -2.5
This is a great spot for the Colts in my opinion coming off a bye. The week off should of allowed them to clean up some deficiencies they began to show on both sides of the ball the last couple of weeks, while being able to exploit a clear coaching mismatch in Frank Reich over Matt Patricia.
The Lions weren’t able to score much against a poor Atlanta Falcons defense last week and now have to face the No.2 ranked defense in the NFL. The bye also allowed Darius Leonard, their young superstar linebacker to get healthy which is a big boost to an already excellent defensive unit.
Apart from the clear coaching disparity and a mediocre team in the Lions who will be facing an elite defense in the Colts, none of the trends in this matchup are in Detroit’s favor.
Here’s some I found for both teams:
The Lions are 5-12 against the spread (ATS) in their last 17 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf while going 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
On the flip-side, the Colts have trends going in their favor.
They are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games in November and 3-1 following an against the spread loss. Head-to-head the road team has been 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
While you have to be careful how much weight you put into these statistical trends, they hold more weight when they are as lopsided as these are.
The Colts clearly have the better defense and will be well rested for this matchup against a middle of the pack Lions team. Detroit hasn’t been able to get a win at home this season and I don’t believe that changes in week 8. Lay the points with Colts for our first best bet of the week.
Saints -4 @ Bears +4
My Pick: UNDER 44.5
They’re will be a lot of games with weather concerns this weekend and this is one of them. While it looks like the skies will be clear there will be strong gusty winds at 25mph plus, which obviously effects kicking and makes passing down field much more difficult.
The Bears have a great defense with an awful offense, which has led to 5 of their last 6 games going UNDER. While the Saints haven’t been good on the outside defensively they are number 4 in DVOA against the run. That should force the Bears to attempt to put the game in Nick Foles hands and, well, we’ve seen how that’s went so far this year. So unless Foles magically morphs into the Super Bowl version of himself, I’m comfortable putting my money on the Bears offense to keep this one under the total.
Not to mention we could see Matt Nagy hand the keys to the kingdom back over to Mitchell Trubisky if we see the continued struggles from Foles.
This will be the Saints 1st game outdoors this season and with the weather conditions, I’m not confident in Drew Bree’s. His production takes a dip when playing outdoors with a QB rating of 91.8 vs 104.8 indoors. He has an average yards per attempt of 8.07 that drops to 7.14 outdoors.
We know Drew isn’t one to take may deep shots down the field and the strong winds along with 3 of his starting receivers out will be good news for anyone betting the UNDER. Michael Thomas once again will be out, along with Marquez Callaway and Emmanuel Sanders. That means we should get a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray on long drives chewing up tons of clock.
Mix together 25-30 mph winds, a terrible offense but great defense in Chicago, and a banged up receiver core for the Saints and you have a perfect recipe for a low-scoring game. Not to mention the under is 21-8 in the last 29 games for the Bears as underdogs.
Smash the total to stay UNDER in this spot.
Steelers + 3.5 @ Ravens -3.5
My Pick: Ravens -3.5
Man I cannot wait to watch this game! It’s going to be a hell of a matchup and these teams always play smash mouth football against one another. It will be another game that we can expect inclimate weather with an 84% chance of rain.
The Steelers are 6-0 on the year and the final undefeated team in the NFL. Digging into them in depth though you will see their previous six opponents have a record of 16-19 with a point differential of -159. The injury to Devin Bush should show up big time in this match up as the Steelers will miss his speed from sideline to sideline going up against an elite running quarterback like Lamar Jackson.
Pittsburgh is coming off a hard fought game against the Tennessee Titans where they gave up a 20 point lead and if not for a missed field goal from Stephen Gostkowski would of went into overtime.
While the Steelers are coming off a tough game the Ravens are well rested coming off a bye. Last year coming off their bye they they put it to a Brady led Patriots team 37-20.
This is a great coaching matchup but with 2 weeks to prepare I think Harbaugh has the edge not to mention he’s 10-2 straight up (SU) and 9-3 against the spread (ATS) coming off a bye. I think he looks to be aggressive and jump out to an early lead pressuring Big Ben to play catch up which will lead to mistakes going against the blitz happy Ravens.
Anything can happen with bad weather and a funny shaped ball but I think the Ravens are the better team and give the Steelers their first loss of the season. Vegas agrees as well with the opening line being -6.5. I still have this one at -5 so with it being bet down to -3.5 I’m happy to take it.
Lay the points with the Ravens and lets lock it in as a best bet.
$100 bet to win $1058.47 to payout $1,158.47
5 TEAM PARLAY
CLE/LVR UNDER 54.5 (weather)
SEA.SF OVER 53.5
$100 bet to win 2,200 to payout $2,300 (22/1 odds)
Well that will do it for this weeks article, NFL BEST BETS WEEK 8. This week is very tricky with some many games that have bad weather forecast. Be sure to double check each game before locking it in as weather can change by the hour sometimes the minute. As always, thanks for tuning in. Feel free to as me on twitter.com @evritt3 and be sure to check out dailybestodds.com.
Fun Fact/Trend of the Week: Eight games this week are forecasted to have double-digit winds! Under are 456-351-8 (57%) in NFL games played with winds of at least 10mph and temperatures above 33 degrees since 2003. Looks like it’s an UNDER week ladies and gentleman.
Good luck to all of you making your way to the counter this Sunday. Stay tuned for my NFL week 9 best bets against the spread.