Before we dive into our best bets for NFL week 7 lets quickly recap last weeks. If you trailed me then you ended up 3-1 on our best bets and we were a 2 point conversion away from hitting the money line parlay.
A losing bet, does not mean a bad bet. The ball just isn’t going to always bounce your way or the field goal you need to cover isn’t going to go through the uprights every time. In our case, teams aren’t always going to convert the 2 point conversion. So the fact that we were relying on “River Boat Ron’s” gutsy fourth quarter call to go for 2 points and the victory means we were on the right side of that game. A perfect example of a good bet that didn’t end up paying off but one I absolutely would place again.
With that being said, it’s encouraging to be one play away from a nice pay day. Knowing you placed a bet that was live until the final seconds of the 4th quarter.
The Packers were the one big loss we took and I don’t think anyone would of predicted that lop-sided of an event. The 5 team parlays are always a long-shot to hit but are fun to put some “what if”money on.
We did have the Steelers, Bears, and Titans come through for us. So overall, not a bad week.
At the end of the day we ended up being profitable and that’s the ultimate goal. Let’s hope we can continue to be on the right side of our NFL best bets in week 7. Before we jump in though, as usual, please take the time to follow me and of course dailybestodds.com on twitter @evritt3 @seef3ldt @dailybestodds
Green Bay Packers W-L 4-1 (-3.5) @ Houston Texans W-L 1-5 (-3.5)
My Pick: Packers -3.5
The one loss we took in our best bets last week was the Green Bay Packers and I’m buying back in this week.
The Buccaneers absolutely destroyed them in all three phases. Every team has those games throughout the season at one point or another. I don’t think Green Bay is as bad as they played last Sunday night, at all, but it’s having some affect on this weeks line against the Texans.
I’m sure Aaron Rodgers performance (16-35, 160 YDS, 2 INT) has been eating him up all week. I expect Rodgers to feast on the 30th ranked Texans defense. The Texans are also LAST in the NFL vs the rush and we saw what Derrick Henry was able to do to them. Aaron Jones (calf) is also a top-tier RB and if he is able to go on Sunday I fully expect him to run-all-over the Texans as well. Even if Jones is out Jamaal Williams has proved to be a more than capable back.
Green Bay has been 11-2 against the spread following an ATS loss and 5-0 following a straight up loss.
This is a perfect buy back spot against a bottom of the barrel defense. I would bet this line up to -5. Give me the Packers to cover and once again lets go ahead and lock them in as a best bet.
Cleveland Browns W-L 4-2 (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals W-L 1-4-1 (+3)
My Pick: Browns -3
Just like the Packers this is a buy back spot for the Browns as well. Baker’s ribs were obviously bothering him against the Steelers but all reports so far heading up to Sunday’s game have him suiting up. If that changes and Case Keenum is the starter I would get away from this bet so be sure to always keep an eye on the injury reports.
This game was close when these two teams met in week 2 (Bengals 30-Browns 35). Now that we have some trends/statistics to go off of we can see that these teams aren’t as evenly matched as that score may have suggested.
There’s two key stats that are important in this matchup. The Browns lead the league in rushing with 169 yards per game and the Bengals are 27th in stopping the run with 142 yards per game allowed. Even with Nick Chubb out the Browns have showed they can run on anyone.
The Browns defense should also have a good game according to the numbers. Cleveland creates a lot of turnovers with 13 already on the year, while the Bengals already have 8. Myles Garret should get to Joe Burrow early and often with the Bengals offense line being 31st in adjusted sack rate.
I don’t see the Baker having to throw much, especially with tender ribs. I expect the Browns to lead for most of the game due to their running attack, taking full advantage of a Bengals team who can’t stop the run. A top ten pass rush led by Myles Garret and friends, along with a huge day on the ground secures the Browns a victory in this one. Lay the points.
Kansa City Chiefs W-L 5-1 (-7) @ Denver Broncos W-L 2-3 (+7)
My Pick: Chiefs -7
They’re calling for snow Sunday in Denver and it’s giving us great value on the Kansas City Chiefs. The line opened up at -10 and with the potential inclement weather it has moved all the way down to -7.
These teams met last December in the snow and the Chiefs won that one 23-3. Mahomes looked just fine then and I expect him to do the same come game time this Sunday as well. Coming off a tough loss to the Las Vegas Raiders the Chiefs and Mahomes will bring their best going up against a divisional opponent in the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos relied on their place kicker Brian McManus to score all their points last week against the Patriots. It did earn them the win but that’s not going to cut it against a premiere offense like the Chiefs. The snow combined with 10mph winds for this matchup won’t allow for that type of game plan.
The Broncos are only scoring 20 points per game. Snow or not, that won’t be enough to go toe-to-toe with the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs. I have this line at -11 so to get it at -7 is an early Christmas present. Coming off a loss they will be fired up to lay it on Denver. Chiefs cover easily.
ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: Detroit +2, Bears +6, CHI/LA-Under 45, Steelers +1, Dal/WAS-Over 45, SEA/ARI-Over 55, 49ers +2.5
San Francisco +143
$100 bet to win $971.63 to payout $1,071.63
5 TEAM PARLAY
Tampa Bay -5
Kansas City -7
CHI/LA Under 45
SEA/ARI Over 55
$100 bet to win $2,200 to payout $2,300 (22/1 odds)
Fun Fact of the Week: When it is 30 degrees or below NFL OVERS have a record of 90-62-1, a 59.2% win rate, 15.2% return on investment (ROI) Make sure you’re checking the temperature when betting the OVER!
Good luck to all of you making your way to the counters this Sunday. Stay tuned in next week for my NFL week 8 best bets against the spread.