I’m quickly finding out the key to success in this industry is knowledge, with some luck tossed in of course. But seriously, the more data/statistics you crunch, the more you read, watch and listen, the better chance you have of gaining an edge against the books and being profitable long term. My goal is to do just that. Help you become more knowledgeable, gain some what of an edge and in turn be profitable.
Professional football wagering isn’t easy but together we will keep improving and bringing new sports enthusiast along for the ride. Before we dive into this weeks card please take the time to follow me and of course Daily Best Odds on twitter.com @evritt3 @seef3ldt @dailybestodds.
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Houston Texans W-L 1-4 (+3) @ Tennessee Titans W-L 4-0 (-3)
My Pick: Ten -3
The Titans just put up 42 points on the undefeated Buffalo Bills. As impressive as that is, Buffalo’s defense isn’t exactly what it once was. I’m focusing more on the Titans only allowing 16 points to a Josh Allen led Bills team. Up until this one off game, Allen was putting up career highs in all passing categories and arguably is the MVP runner up behind Russell Wilson.
That being said, I think this Titans team is the real deal and their defensive performance on Tuesday night was nothing short of spectacular. I think they will be able to stay in rhythm even on the short week.
The Houston Texans are going to have all sorts of problems stopping Derrick Henry with their 31st ranked run defense. The Texans allow 160 yards on the ground and that isn’t going to cut it against last years NFL rushing leader. Houston also has the 30th ranked rushing offense which makes it incredibly difficult on Deshaun Watson because defenses don’t respect their running attack.
The Texans bottom of the barrel rushing defense won’t be able to slow down a premiere back like Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill also got his top pass-catcher back in A.J. Brown so look for him to take some focus off Henry, opening up the running attack even more.
The Titans will stay hot on both sides of the ball. I’ll lay the points and make it one of my best bets of the week.
Chicago Bears W-L 4-1 (+1.5) @ Carolina Panthers W-L 3-2 (-1.5)
My Pick: Chi +1.5 or Money Line-Bears
This line opened at -3.5. I took the Bears getting the points right away. This Carolina team is playing above expectations even without their best player, Christian McCaffrey. You have to give credit when credit is due but I don’t believe they deserve to be the favorite in this game.
Vegas had the Bears at -2.5 point favorites before the start of the season and I’m not really sure what prompted the line to move this much.
The Panthers only have 5 sacks on the season and only get pressure on the quarterback 13.5% of the time which is 31st in the league. They rank 28th in football outsiders.com DVOA.
The Bears should finally be able to run the ball going up against a bottom tiered defense. That should allow the offense to open up, something the Bears weren’t able to do against the Colts or Buccaneers in their last two matchups. The Colts and Bucs are top five in most defensive metrics. That is not the case for the Carolina Panthers who allow a successful run 60% of the time.
The Bears are 5th in DVOA overall on the year. 1st in passing success rate, allowing only 41% of throws to be successful and 2nd in 3rd down conversion percentage.
I like the Chicago Bears in this spot. Nick Foles has had time to get comfortable, David Montgomery should find success on the ground and the Bears defense will expose the Panthers for the offense we all thought they were. It’s not a sexy pick but my money is on the Bears and the points this week.
Green Bay Packers W-L 4-0 (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers W-L 3-2 (+2.5)
My Pick: GB -2.5
I’m starting to believe the whole purpose of drafting Jordan Love was to light a fire under Aaron Rodgers and I must say, it has worked!
Rodgers is rolling into MVP form with 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions so far this season.
I was able to find some pretty astounding numbers while watching film and researching for this game. Rodgers is 113-78-5 against the spread (15.7% ROI) for his career. He is 8-2-1 ATS coming off a bye (50.2% ROI) and the Packers as a team so far this year are 4-0 ATS (97.5% ROI).
Rodgers is on fire and will get his pro bowl receiver Davante Adams back this week.
On the other side of the ball, you have another hall-of-famer in Tom Brady. He has looked good at times but seems to be struggling with transitioning to his new team overall.
Rodgers and Brady have faced each other only twice in their careers and the favorite has won both times. The Bucs have an overrated defense in my opinion and will be down one of their best run stuffers in Vita Vea this week.
All the numbers point to Rodgers and the Packers so I don’t see them not making my ticket this week. Bet the small number especially with Rodgers on fire like this. Putting a best bet stamp on this one as well. Lock it in.
Cleveland Browns W-L 4-1 (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers W-L 4-0 (-3.5)
My Pick: PIT -3.5
The Browns hitting stride and going on a 4 game winning streak has them at peek market value. That’s exactly why it’s the perfect time to bet against them.
They’re going up against a team who I think is clearly better. One of the battles I’m looking forward to is the Browns top ranked rushing attack going up against the Steelers top ranked defense (#1 in rush defense DVOA). Pittsburgh is also second in rushing yards allowed per game.
If the Steelers continue to be stingy then it will be a long day for a banged up Baker Mayfield (ribs).
The Browns passing offense has been mediocre at best and Baker doesn’t do well under pressure even when fully healthy which won’t be the case on Sunday. So if the Steelers can continue to stuff the run and force the game in to the hands of Mayfield it will be a long day for the Browns at Heinz field. The Steelers passing offense has hit stride and the emergence of rookie Chase Claypool who had 4 touchdowns last week vs the Eagles makes it even more dynamic.
The Steelers defense will force the Browns to stray away from their game plan and they don’t have the passing attack to play catch up. The Steelers will win big at home. Lay the points.
Still under consideration: Baltimore -9.5, 49ers +3.5 or ML, DET/JAX Under 54.5, Chiefs -3.5, CIN/IND-Under 46.5, ATL/MIN Over 54
Chicago Bears +110
Washington Football Team +130
$100 bet to win $383.00 Payout $483.00
5 team Parlay
Kansas City -3.5
$100 bet Win $2,200 Payout $2,300 (22/1 odds)
Fun Fact of the Week: If you blindly bet every 0-5 team since 1989 you have won 62.1% of the time. J-E-T-S anyone?
Good luck to all of you making your way to the counters this Sunday. Stay tuned in next week for my NFL week 7 against the spread picks.