Let Colby Cummings guide you through the betting board of week 6 in the NFL.
Last week out picks went 4.77-3 (61.4%). On the season we are 52.95-34-1 (60.9%) on our betting pick which is well over the profitable threshold of 52.4%. Lets keep it rolling into this NFL week 6 betting guide
Betting Tip for Week 6: Key Numbers
Week 6 has plenty of games with spreads falling on the key numbers of 3 and 7, with hooks out there as well. While this can be very tricky to bet, it does offer value. This week is a great time to get creative and play with lines via teasers. Such close matchups make for better watching than betting.To combat this, we’re going to be snipers, and pick and choose our well calculated shots. Simply put, there are two types of bettors: ones that are scared by tough lines, and those who find value in them. Being the former is the best way to make a name for yourself at the betting counters.
You wont find a more unfair matchup in professional football. The Bengals offense is going to have a miserable Sunday against this Colt’s defense. Looking at how these two matchup, you have a Colts defense ranked 1st in DVOA vs the Bengals offense ranking 27th. The battle in the trenches will be a mismatch as well. The Bengals offensive line ranks 27th in pass blocking and 15th in run blocking. The Colts defense ranks 3rd and 18th in defending those metrics, respectively. The Bengals won’t catch many breaks come Sunday, so the Colts are the smart bet here.
Ravens -6.5 @ Eagles
The Eagle’s offense lives and dies by QB Carson Wentz carrying a forgettable WR cast. And this year, its been a lot of dying by it. The offense ranks 29th in DVOA vs a Raven’s defense ranking 3rd . That same offenses ranks 28th in EPA/play where as the Ravens defense ranks 3rd. The Ravens roll teams inferior to them, and getting this alternate line keeps you off the key number of 7. Pay the extra juice, and take the Ravens.
Ravens @ Eagles Over 47.5
Warning: I’m about to contradict myself. Even after previously describing the Eagle’s offensive struggles, I like our chances to see points in this game. For starters, the Steelers were able to torch the Eagle’s defense last week, and this Ravens offense is far better. It is still early in the season and the Eagles kept pace last week against a top defensive unit with the Steelers. The offense is only a couple steps away from turning things around. They rank 13th in pass blocking and and 7th in run blocking. Their efficiency measures are due to progress. They’re showing strides, and this is the week to buy their scoring potential while it’s low when the rest of the NFL is inflated. With the scoring parade happening in the NFL, seeing a number like 47.5 is a gift. I’m not asking the Eagles to win, but just to keep it close and maybe grab a garbage time score if need be. The Ravens are 1-4 hitting the over, so they’re due for some regression to the mean.
Rams @ 49ers Under 51.5
The 49ers offenses has struggled this year, ranking 24th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA/play. The Rams defense presents a mismatch ranking 8th and 4th in those metrics. The 49ers have gotten by due to their defense keeping them in games, ranking 8th in EPA/play. Even after Miami lit them up last week, expect them to bounce back in their 3rd straight home game, whereas the Rams had to go to Washington last week. Additionally neither team has been very battle tested collectively thorough 5 weeks. The strength of schedule ranks 29th and 31st for the Rams and 49ers, respectively. So expect to see a struggle for both teams, and struggles result in low scoring affairs.
Teaser Options: +150 Odds
Ravens -1.5, Pats -4, Dolphins -3.5
I’ve covered why you should like the Ravens this week, and teasing them gets you far away from the key number of 7. The Patriots should dominate the incompetent Broncos on Sunday. The Bronco’s offensive line ranks dead last (32nd) league wide in both pass and run blocking. The Patriots defense ranks 5th in stopping the run. Additionally, the Patriots get Cam Newton back, and he faces a Denver defense ranking 30th in DVOA. At a game where the over/under is set at 45, points are said to be at a premium. Teasing this one keeps you protected against a closer-than-expected, sloppy game. I refuse to lay 9.5 on a rebuilding team in the Dolphins or QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the teaser is perfect there. The Jets ranks 27th and 32nd in offensive and defensive EPA/play. Conversely the Dolphins rank 19th and 8th. The Jets are 0-5 against the spread and lost RB Le’Veon Bell, so where is the optimism with anything to do with the Jets? Fade them.
Lions @ Jaguars Over 48, Bears +7.5, Bills @ Chiefs Over 51.5
Matt Patricia’s defense has been abysmal in 2020. They are 30th and 32nd in DVOA and EPA/play, respectively. Somehow the Jaguars are just as bad, ranking 32nd and 31st. Both offenses can use this as a get right game, so expect some points on Sunday. If the Bears could slow down Tom Brady, Teddy Bridgewater shouldn’t be expected to accomplish much this week. This Bear’s defense ranks 5th in both DVOA and EPA/play. The Panther’s offense has been outperforming expectations. They rank 12th in EPA/play, but only 24th in pass blocking and 20th in run blocking. This isn’t sustainable, and the Bears will exploit that. QB Patrick Mahomes’ offense ranks 2nd and 4th in DVOA and EPA/play, respectively. Even after a letdown on Tuesday night, the Bills’ offense still ranks 7th and 5th in those same measures. The Bills’ defense has regressed from last year. They rank 27th and 25th in those same metrics. Neither team stops the run either, as the Chiefs rank 28th while the Bills rank 27th. This game screams points, but teasing it offers a more favorable total.
This moneyline parlay is my favorite of the week for one main reason, we’re keeping it simple. This ticket combines some of the most lopsided games we will see in week 6, and pays at -108 odds.
Option 2: +265 Odds
Parlays are used to get big returns, and this next option is one to offset that downside in the former. If you like a little more risk, but still want a ticket with realistic chances to cash, you’ve found it.
Follow this NFL week 6 betting guide on your way to a profitable week. I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 5 betting. Check out The Football Discussion for a more comprehensive breakdown of every matchup, as well as weekly game recaps. Check out more sports content at DailyBestOdds.com