Creator: Mark J. Rebilas | Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Copyright: Mark J. Rebilas

Best Picks: NFL Week 5 Betting

Want you know what week 5 NFL betting picks you should make? Read below to learn more.

Weekly Betting Tip: Strength In Numbers

For the casual bettor, researching teams to make informed betting picks is a difficult task. It is also very time consuming. Personally, I like to use a lot of different metrics when evaluating teams. Not to say the age old “eye test” is outdated, but data offers a scientific look at things. Unbiased data is a great tool to help you gauge teams. As the NFL season grows older bettors have more data to analyze teams that can be very useful. It will help you avoid to following trends or believing everything you hear on a sports talk show that says whatever will get ratings. While no single measure is gospel, collectively they paint a better picture than what your eyes can. It’s time to put these numbers to use and win week 5 in the NFL with our betting picks.

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Week 5 Betting Picks

Buccaneers -5 @ Bears

The Buccaneers lead the NFL South, and for good reason. While all the offseason talk was centered on Tom Brady, it’s the defense that has stole the show. They currently rank 2nd in DVOA according to Football Outsiders, largely due to ranking 7th in pass rush and 10th stopping the run, according to ESPN Analytics. They will face a Bears offense that is 27th in DVOA. The same offense that could only muster 11 points last week. Additionally, the Buccaneers offense is finding its stride. Last week, Brady put on a clinic. The Buccaneers have also faced a harder schedule than the Bears, 19th vs 28th, according to Power Rankings Guru. Despite this, Tampa Bay is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) vs Chicago’s 2-2 record ATS according to Team Rankings. Good offense and good defense are a recipe to win a game handily.

Cardinals/Jets Under 47

For all the hype Arizona’s offense has received, statistically they are an average unit thus far. They rank 25th in DVOA, 5th in pass blocking despite ranking 13th in sacks surrendered, and 13th in run blocking. There’s reason to believe the Jets can slow them down. They rank 10th in DVOA, 12th in pass rush, and 3rd in stopping the run. Unfortunately for the Jets Adam Gase is still the head coach, and that gives us reason to be pessimistic about their offense. They rank 28th in DVOA, 25th in run blocking, and 29th in pass blocking. These teams are also a combined 3-5 on hitting the over in 2020 according to Team Rankings. An overvalued Arizona offense and undervalued New York Jets defense, gives us value in this under.

Rams -7.5 @ Washington

Laying points on the road? Get ready to be a little uncomfortable. Kyle Allen will start at QB for Washington. You might remember his hot start, but his decline was even more dramatic with 16 INTs in 13 games in 2019. He’ll be playing in an offense that ranks 29th in DVOA with the 27th ranked pass blocking line. Washington ranks 27th in pass rush, and Rams QB Jared Goff performs well in clean pockets without pressure. This Ram’s offense has bounced back from last year as they rank 2nd in DVOA, 11th in pass blocking, and 5th in run blocking. Expect them to dominate all game long while Washington head coach Ron Rivera says he is in “evaluation” mode and doesn’t seem hellbent on being competitive in 2020. Even above the key number of 7 you should take the Rams to cover.

Seahawks -7 @ Vikings

Two spread picks at/above the key number of 7, while traveling no less? Didn’t I tell you to get comfortable being uncomfortable? Dig a little deeper and put yourself at ease. The Vikings may have two WRs playing well in Thielen and Jefferson, but QB Kirk Cousins has struggled all year long behind the 24th ranked pass blocking line. He will be facing the 9th ranked pass rush. Maybe the Vikings will rely on Dalvin Cook, behind the 31st ranked run blocking line. He will be facing the 11th ranked run defense. The Seahawks offenses led by Russell Wilson ranks 5th in DVOA and 6th in run blocking vs a Vikings defense ranked dead last (32nd) in stopping the run. There doesn’t appear to be much of a solution for the 1-3 Vikings. Oh, and Seattle is 4-0 ATS. Take Seattle minus the points.  

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6-Point Teasers at +150 Odds

Buccaneers +1, Ravens -7, Jaguars/Texans Over 48.5

I’ve already discussed my interest in the Buccaneers, teasing them just allows you to get though those key numbers of 3. The Ravens are a much better team than the Bengals, no one is denying that. The Bengals rank 16th in defensive DVOA, 30th in pass rush, and 21st in stopping the run. Lamar Jackson should be salivating. So should his defense. They rank 9th in defensive DVOA and 7th in pass rush vs the Bengals 25th pass blocking line. Styles make fights, this shouldn’t be a fair one, and teasing it helps you avoid laying so many points that garbage time can haunt you with. Don’t expect much defense in Houston come Sunday. The Jaguars and Texans rank 32nd and 27th in DVOA, respectively. These teams are also a combined 6-2 hitting the over in 2020.

Rams -1.5, Dolphins +15 Eagles/Steelers Under 50

Teasing the Rams avoids laying so many points after last week’s showing. Seattle is better than San Francisco. The Dolphins and Vikings are relatively equal. So why are the 49ers 9-popint favorites, but Seattle is only 7? The Dolphins proved they can play teams tough, and at +15 were not asking them to gut out a win. They’ll likely be playing vs backup QB CJ Beathard. Lastly we have a Steelers defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA, 1st in pass rush, and 1st in stopping the run. Contrast that with the Eagles offense ranked 31st in DVOA and a defense ranked 14th in DVOA and 4th in pass rush. They’ll see Ben Roethlisberger who is, well, suspect at best. His weapons are just decent, the line ranks 23rd in pass blocking. This game screams “sloppy and dog fight” not “shootout and fireworks”.

Moneyline Parlay at +116 Odds

There are two strategies when betting the moneyline: picking winners and picking losers.

The Ravens and Seahawks are easy winner picks while the Giants (vs Cowboys) and Washington (vs Rams) are easy loser picks. While the payout won’t pay off your student loans or buy you a vacation home, always remember there is no value in losing tickets, and we always want to build a ticket we are confident in winning. So, the weekly moneyline parlay is as follows:

  • Ravens
  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys
  • Rams

I wish you the best of luck with your week 5 NFL betting picks. Check out The Football Discussion for a more comprehensive breakdown of every matchup, as well as weekly game recaps. Check out more sports content at DailyBestOdds.com

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