Want to beat the sportsbooks in Week 4 of the NFL and make some money? You’re in the right place. Read/Listen below to learn how.
I’ll come right out and say it; I LOVE the betting board this week. Week 3 offered plenty of good games to watch, but the same can’t be said about from a betting perspective. Week 3 gave us the Rams/Bills comeback and down to the wire finish, the Chiefs/Ravens AFC showdown, and a shootout in the Cowboys/Seahawks matchup. All were fun to watch, but not much value was offered in terms of betting such even matchups. Week 4 however, is another story. So let’s take a look at the betting outlook for Week 4.
The most important piece of beating sportsbooks in Week 4 is discipline. Don’t overextend yourself and “sell the farm” for a “sure” bet, because one doesn’t exist. The best money management strategy you need to use is to bet the same amount on each pick. You need to be parceling your wager into 1-3% of your budget. This protects you against one bad beat ruining your overall performance, and allows you to be sustainable. We are in this for long term success, not to get rich quick. We are going to focus on the games and picks I believe give you the best chance of beating the sportsbooks this week 4 in detail, rather than covering every game in less detail. For a more comprehensive breakdown of week 4, check out “The Football Discussion” podcast on all major streaming platforms.
Saints -4 @ Lions
Starting off with the Saints -4 at the Lions. The Saints rank 10th offensively and 12thdefensively in DVOA, as opposed to the Lions who come in at 22nd and 27th respectively, according to Football Outsiders. There are two picks you should be taking for Sunday’s matchup, the Saints to cover and the over set at 54. The Saints lost to a Packers team playing out of their minds by only 7, and make no mistake; the Lions are NOT the Packers. The Lions are due for a setback after upsetting the Cardinals. Also, the Lions have gone over 2/3 times this year along with the Saints doing so 3/3 times in 2020. Saint’s WR Emmanuel Sanders was involved last week, Lion’s WR Kenny Golladay is healthy again, and Saints WR Michael Thomas could be back.
Steelers @ Titans Under 47
The next pick I like is the under in the Steelers/Titans which is set at 47. Both defenses stop the run, as the Steelers rank 1st in run stop win rate and the Titans rank 14th according to ESPN’s Analytics Database. Additionally, the Steelers rank 1st in pass rush win rate. The Titans rank 14th in pass protection, so expect the Steelers defense to be disruptive all day. Titans rank 11th offensive DVOA, 16th in defense DVOA and, where the Steelers rank 14th and 3rd respectively. Neither offense should be expected to dominate, and that mean points will be at a premium, allowing for more FG attempts versus 4th down attempts thus extending drives for the possibility of more points to be scored.
Bills -3 @ Raiders
Another pick you need to be taking is the favored Bills to cover the 3-point spread. The Raiders got exposed vs the Patriots in Week 3, after receiving way to much hype after beating the Saints on the road without WR Michael Thomas. This Bills offense is rolling, and despite the defense struggling, ranking 24th in DVOA, they are an easy pick. I’d argue a very talented and well coached defensive unit is poised to get on track this week. Furthermore, the Raiders run defense ranks 25th in stop rate and is 31st in DVOA, and expect Buffalo to exploit that all afternoon.
Teaser Options: +150 Odds
I don’t see a ton of great picks this week as they are, but teasing the lines and totals this week more than makes up for it. When you’re leaning to one side but not enough to bet it, teasing will allow you to get a number you like more, while parlaying it with similar instances and creating a bet you are confident in, and don’t feel is a reach. This week we have 3 great teaser options, all offering +150 odds.
Packers -1.5, Ravens @ Washington over 41, Seahawks -1
The Packers are the far superior team, and getting it below 3 protects you from the back door cover from a respectable Falcons offense. The Washington Football Team is injured all over their defense including stud rookie Chase Young. Washington is 18th in run stop win rate while the Ravens are 9th in run blocking. QB Dwayne Haskins has a habit of turning it over, and this Ravens defense is 10th in DVOA. Expect the Ravens to make statement after a tough loss to their AFC rival the Kansas City Chiefs. Lastly, the Seahawks are the far superior tram, and much like the Packers, this protects against a serviceable offense getting a backdoor cover.
Seahawks @ Dolphins Over 48.5, Colts @ Bears under 51, Steelers @ Titans under 53
Neither the Seahawks nor the Dolphins play much defense, ranking 32nd and 23rd in defensive DVOA. Combined, these two teams have gone over 48.5 total points in 4/6 games in 2020. The Dolphins defense will also draw their toughest test, likely all year, with trying to slow down QB Russell Wilson. The Colts have one of the stingiest defenses, and an offense good enough to keep the game close to avoid a scoring parade late. The Bears defense is also stout, and with new life in QB Nick Foles, their offense can do the same. As discussed above, the Steelers/Titans matchup should see very little points, so why not move the line to give you more confidence in the under cashing in?
Ravens -6.5, Jaguars @ Bengals over 42 Titans +7.5
The Ravens at -6.5 protect against a backdoor cover in garbage time. The Jaguars defense ranks 29th defensively but 7th offensively in DVOA. Joe Burrow has shown he can play, and with WRs A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd on the outside we shooed see a fair amount of points. You shouldn’t bank on a shootout, but this tease allows you some leeway. The Titans +7.5 gives you the option of a backdoor cover, and in a game I’ve already argued should be a close one with minimal scoring, moving this line to two possessions adds confidence.
Moneyline Parlay: +568 odds
Picking winners is something we all love to do. However, it densest pay well, but parlays do. Put these teams on your moneyline parlay to give you confidence as well the upside of +568 odds.