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Finally, UFC 251 at Fight Island is here and about to take place and is headlined by Usman vs. Masvidal. Remember to share with your friends and feel free to tail (or fade) my picks.

Early Prelims for Fight Island

Bantamweight, Martin Day vs. Davey Grant: Yes, the fight will go the distance -185

  • Day has a 4.5″ reach advantage
  • Day is 0-1 in UFC and lost in a split decision
  • Day is inexperienced as a grappler and tends to rely on strikes
  • Grant is 2-3 in UFC
  • Grants lands 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Grant is much better on the mat than he is at defending strikes
  • I expect a slow fight as Grant tries to avoid being KO’d

Women Bantamweight, Karol Rosa vs. Vanessa Melo: Rosa -240

  • Rosa has a 2.5″ reach advantage
  • Rosa landed 171 strikes in her last fight
  • Melo is 0-2 in UFC
  • Melo is slow and absorbs plenty of strikes
  • Rosa tends to throw strikes at a high pace

Flyweight, Raulian Paiva vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov: Paiva -150

  • Paiva has a 3.5″ reach advantage
  • Paiva is 4″ taller than Zhumagulov
  • Paiva is 2-1 in UFC with his only loss due to a stoppage (cut) in a fight he was winning
  • Zhumagulov is making his UFC debut
  • Nearly fighter likes to grabble, making this a striking contest

Heavyweight, Marcin Tybura vs. Maxim Grishim: No, fight does not go the distance -115

  • Tybura is nearly 30 lbs heavier than Grishim
  • Grishim is making his UFC debut on short notice
  • Grishim is moving up a weight class for this fight

Prelims for Fight Island

Lightweight, Leonardo Santos vs. Roman Bogatov: Santos -150

  • Santos has a 1.5″ reach advantage
  • Santos is 5″ taller than Bogatov
  • Santos is undefeated in UFC
  • Santos has only fought in 7 fights since 2013
  • Bogatov is making his UFC debut
  • Bogatov relies on grappling but Santos is a 4th degree Brazillian Ju-Jitsu blackbelt

Featherweight, Makwan Amirkhani vs. Danny Henry: Amirkhani -210

  • Henry has a 1″ reach advantage
  • Henry is 4″ taller than Amirkhani
  • Amirkhani averages 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Amirkhani has 10 submission wins

Welterweight, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Muslim Salikhov: Zaleski dos Santos +115 / UNDER 2.5 Rounds +115

  • Zaleski dos Santos has a 3″ reach advantage
  • Salikhov has won 12 of his 16 fights by KO
  • Salikhov has only defended 72% of takedowns
  • Salkihov has submitted in both of his losses
  • Zaleski dos Santos is excellent on the mat but struggles to get opponents down to the mat
  • Zaleksi dos Santos has durability concerns
  • Fight will probably end in KO, but if it reaches the mat Zaleski dos Santos will win

Light Heavyweight, Volkan Oezdemir vs. Jiri Prochazka: Oezdemir -145

  • Prochazka has a 5″ reach advantage
  • Prochazka is making his UFC debut
  • Oezdemir is 2-3 in his L5 on a 2 fight win streak
  • Prochazka has below-average striking defense and grappling
  • Prochazka has fought poor fighters and has padded his record, rarely leaving the 1st round
  • If this fight lasts the full 3 rounds, Oezdemir should win easily

Main Card for Fight Island

Women Flyweight. Amanda Ribas vs. Paige VanZant: Ribas -850

  • Ribas has a 1″ reach advantage
  • Ribas is 10 lbs heavier than VanZant
  • VanZant is 1″ taller than Ribas
  • Ribas is undefeated in UFC
  • VanZant hasn’t won since January 2019
  • Ribas only takes 1.70 significant strikes per minute

Women Strawweight, Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas: Andrade +180

  • Namajunas has a 3″ reach advantage
  • Namajunas is 3″ taller than Andrade
  • Both are former champions
  • Namajunas is 2-1 in her L3 including a KO loss to Andrade
  • Andrade is 2-1 in her L3 including a KO win over Namajunas
  • Andrade averages 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Namajunas was dominating Andrade the last time they fought but lost because her head got slammed into the mat
  • I feel this fight should be closer to a PK so I’m taking the underdog

Title bout, Bantamweight, Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo: Yan -225 / Yan to win inside the distance +110

  • Aldo has a 3″ reach advantage
  • Aldo is 3-5 in his L8
  • Aldo has been out-striked in each of his L3
  • Yan has 67.8% striking defense (5th best in Bantamweight history)

Co-main, Title bout, Featherweight, Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway: Holloway +185

  • Volkanovski has a 2.5″ reach advantage
  • Holloway is 4″ taller than Volkanovski
  • Holloway had 14 straight wins before losing the title to Volkanovski last December
  • Volkanovski has 0 takedowns in his L3
  • Holloway averages 6.66 significant strikes per minute
  • Holloway has landed over 100 strikes in each of his L6

Main Event for UFC 251 Fight Island

Main Event, Welterweight, Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal: Usman -245 / OVER 3.5 Rounds -110 / Usman by decision +150

  • Usman has a 2″ reach advantage
  • Usman is 3″ taller than Masvidal
  • The only loss for Usman was all the way back in 2013
  • Masvidal had 3 KO wins in 2019 and was the fighter of the year
  • Pace is an undeniable strength for Usman
  • Usman averages 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Masvidal averages 4.33 significant strikes per minute
  • Masvidal stuffs 78% of takedown attempts
  • Masvidal has not been finished in a fight since 2009


What are your best bets for today’s sports action? Let me know in the comments below! Also, check out the shop and other content by clicking here.

-Mitchell Seefeldt

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