Thursday Night Football: Week 7 Preview

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Empower Field at Mile High

Denver, CO

Betting

Denver may be on a 2-game winning streak but I think that is factoring into sportsbooks prices too much. There is value to found on this game as the Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites at EVEN money (+100). I locked that pick in as soon as I saw it was available and since then the line has moved to -3.0 points at -110 in favor of the Chiefs. Obviously, since I like the Chiefs on the spread, shop around for the best Moneyline price for the Chiefs to win outright. As for the total, the Broncos have arguably the strongest defense in the league whereas the Chiefs have one of the best offenses. With that in mind, I’m staying away from the total that is currently at 48.5 points.

Injuries

The home team, Denver, will be without their starting cornerback Bryce Callahan which does not bode well for a team that will need to stop the pass tonight. It doesn’t help that his direct backup, Duke Dawson Jr. is listed as questionable and could miss this game too. Maybe they can disrupt the pass with a strong pass rush? Well, that may be difficult if Derek Wolfe misses tonight’s game too as he is listed as questionable. At least on offense, there is only one injury to monitor for the Broncos. Starting RT Ju’Wuan James is listed as questionable which means a team that already doesn’t carry many O-lineman will be down another if he misses action tonight.

The Chiefs have already ruled out Sammy Watkins, Andrew Wylie, and Chris Jones for tonight’s game. Just when the Chiefs get their top receiver back, they lose their #2 and their starting LG. Then, on defense, the Chiefs lose their best D-lineman while also potentially losing their top corners in Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller. A lot of big names and impact players are either OUT our QUESTIONABLE for the Chiefs, but the core will still be active.

Broncos Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

The Broncos are a one-dimensional team that relies heavily on the running abilities of Phillip Lindsey and Royce Freeman. The backfield split is around 60/40 with Lindsey leading the way but both runners are playing effectively. With each back averaging around 4.5 yards per carry, the Broncos feed the 2-headed monster of the backfield until Joe Flacco is forced to throw. When passing, the Broncos go to breakout receiver Courtland Sutton more often than any other player. Sutton has more big plays, targets, catches, and touchdowns than any other pass-catcher on the Broncos. If the Chiefs are without their top corners on an already terrible defense, Sutton could be in line for his best game of the season. The Broncos will likely be playing from behind in this game which means more Flacco pass attempts. That sentiment only amplifies when we realize that the Chiefs are good at one thing on defense: forcing turnovers.

Chiefs Offense vs. Broncos Defense

Tyreek Hill is back and Patrick Mahomes has his deep-threat weapon to take shots with once again. The Broncos are only allowing 207 passing yards a game but Mahomes is averaging over 360 passing yards. Something will have to give in tonight’s game and the team that folds first might not be obvious. The Broncos defense has held the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers to under 240 passing yards each and just last week were the straw that broke the Titans back with Marcus Mariota. Patrick Mahomes is amazing, but we cannot ignore the dominance of the Broncos defense. If Kareem Jackson and Chris Harris Jr. can somehow slow down Mahomes and company, the Broncos defense just might be able to keep this team afloat for a third win in a row.

Prediction

Chiefs: 24

Broncos: 16

Guaranteed Touchdown Scorer: Tyreek Hill

Dart Throw Touchdown Scorer: Noah Fant

Conclusion

Tonight’s game is a testament of prolific offense against a stonewall of a defense. Who do you think will come out on top tonight? Let me know in the comments down below! For more content, check out the blog feed or browse our shop for some merchandise.

-Mitchell Seefeldt

Jeffrey Beall [CC BY 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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