Monday Night Football: Week 6 Preview

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Lambeau Field

Green Bay, WI

Betting

Tonight’s game will be a close battle between teams with great offenses and bad defenses, statistically speaking. Sportsbooks agree on this assessment as the total is set at 46.0 points (-115 Under) with only a -3.5 point spread (-115) in favor of the Packers. Being the favorite (-200), the Packers will look to build off an impressive showing last week and further their grasp on a potential divisional crown. Personally, I like the Packers spread on this game and will look into in-game betting the total depending on the pace of play. Also, keep an eye out for props that involve the Packers TEs/FB as only 3 total will suit up for this game. Other than that, there are not much else +money props that intrigue me at this time.

Injuries

The Packers will be without arguably their best offensive player in this one as Davante Adams will miss yet another game with a toe injury. Also out for the Packers offense is pass-catching TE Robert “Big Bob” Tonyan, this leaves the team with only 3 healthy TEs and/or FBs. On defense, rookie standout Darnell Savage will miss tonight’s game and reserve cornerback Tony Brown appears to be doubtful to play. With only 2 healthy safeties on the roster, expect veteran Tramon Williams to fill in for Savage with Will Redmond spelling him.

For the Lions, only one offensive player has their status in question. That player, Danny Amendola, is the slot/underneath threat that the Lions need in order to open up the deep shots to their stud WR, Kenny Golladay. On defense, there will not be a revenge game for Mike Daniels as he is already ruled out. In fact, the Lions D-Line is looking thin as Daniels teammates Da’Shawn Hand (OUT) and A’Shawn Robinson (Q) missing tonight’s game could leave them with only 4 D-Lineman. Also, the Lions best secondary players, Darius Slay and Quandre Diggs, are both questionable but are expected to be available.

Packers Offense vs. Lions Defense

With the Lions potentially not having any D-Lineman to spell the starters, it would be smart for the Packers to run the hurry-up offense throughout the entire game. It would also behoove the Packers to continue to build off of Aaron Jones‘s strong game by feeding him the ball against a tired Lions front-7. With Jamaal Williams returning from a scary concussion, he should also see some good opportunities to find openings in the Lions defense. Without Adams, the Packers will lean on MVS and Geronimo Allison to attack a Lions secondary that allows nearly 300 passing yards a game. As I mentioned in the betting section, the trio of Jimmy Graham, Mercedes Lewis, and Danny Vitale will see ample playing time and I like the odds of at least one of them getting 50+yards or a TD. The QBR of superstar QB Aaron Rodgers is low for his standards (only at 55.4), but, he’s been protective of the football so what gives? Rodgers has taken 10 sacks while only throwing 6 TD’s in 5 games so far this season. For a QB that loves to hold on to the ball and have his receivers create separation down the field, Rodgers must be beaming at the opportunity to face a Lions squad that will be without most of the defensive lineman. Be wary of the Lions ability to create turnovers though! This Lions defense has forced 9 fumbles and recovered 6 of those fumbles themselves. Turnovers will play an important part in this game.

Lions Offense vs. Packers Defense

Matt Stafford has found his new “Megatron” receiver in the likes of Kenny Golladay. The ultimate redzone threat, Golladay has already scored 4 touchdowns this season as he provides a big-bodied target for Stafford to simply chuck the ball to in times of desperation. Not to be overlooked, Marvin Jones has 7 “big-play” catches of over 20 yards this season so far. And how are those big passing plays set up? Why that be the running game of Kerryon Johnson of course! Johnson has not been the most effective in terms of yards-per-carry, but he is a beast at picking up 1st-downs and drawing the defense in for the big passing plays down the field. The Packers have been poor, to put it kindly, at stopping the run this season too. The Lions have more efficient runners in J.D. Mckissic and Ty Johnson, but they will likely continue to get less than 5 carries each per game. The man that I expect to have the best game for this Lions team is rookie TE T.J. Hockenson. The Packers linebackers are more suitable as pass-rushers and without Darnell Savage, Adrian Amos will have to decide whether to help with Golladay or Hockenson in the passing game. The obvious choice is Golladay which leaves the rookie stud to attack the middle of the field.

Prediction

Lions: 26

Packers: 32

Guaranteed Touchdown Scorer: T.J. Hockenson / Aaron Jones

Dart Throw Touchdown Scorer: Mercedes Lewis 

Conclusion

This NFC North battle will be a good one! Who do you have winning tonight? Let me know in the comments below!

-Mitchell Seefeldt

Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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