NCAA Week 7 Preview

This weekend, we have 4 games on tap that are between a couple of Top-25 teams.

#6 Oklahoma at #11 Texas

These teams enter the game as a couple of the best offenses in all of college football. Texas is the 19th best offense in the NCAA with 483 yards per game, but, Oklahoma is the top offense by a large margin. With an average of 643 yards per game (1st in the NCAA) and 35 offensive touchdowns (2nd in the NCAA), Oklahoma is led by Heisman candidate Jalen Hurts. Thankfully for Texas, they are led by Sam Ehlinger who has 17 passing touchdowns (5th in the NCAA) so far this year. 

Neither defense is amazing but Texas is much worse in comparison. Texas allows nearly 100 more yards per game than Oklahoma which does not bode well for a team that needs to essentially win a shootout. The running games for both teams, apart from Jalen Hurts, will not factor into this game much as I see the score climbing at a rapid pace. Oklahoma averages 53.4 points a game (2nd in the NCAA) and Texas averages 41.8 points a game (11th in the NCAA) which seems like a solid score to predict for this game.

Oklahoma is the betting favorite (-400) and the spread is set at -10 (-115). With the total set at 75.5 (-115 UNDER), this game will light up the scoreboard early for us at home. This is a great game to kick off our Saturday at noon and will set the mark for the rest of the college football afternoon.

Prediction

#6 Oklahoma: 49

#11 Texas: 32

Guaranteed Touchdown Scorer: Jalen Hurts (rushing)

Dart Throw Touchdown Scorer: Collin Johnson

#1 Alabama at #24 Texas A&M

Alabama, led by Tua Tagovailoa, score an average of 51.8 points per game (3rd in the NCAA). Meanwhile, A&M is ranked T-46th for scoring in an offense led by transfer QB Kellen Mond. In terms of total offensive yards, Alabama ranks 3rd overall with 554.6 yards per game and A&M isn’t even in the top-50 overall.

Even though Alabama has an amazing offense, A&M can counter with their great defense. The A&M defense is ranked 20th in the NCAA in terms of points allowed (17.8 per game). The will need to be firing on all cylinders if they hope to stop Tua and the ’Bama offense in this one. Even if they can slow down the Crimson Tide offense, Alabama has a stout defense in their own right. Ranked T-13th overall (14.8 points allowed per game), Alabama is as well-rounded a team that we can get in the NCAA.

This game belongs to Alabama according to sportsbooks. As a -1000 favorite and -17 (-110) spread favorite, Alabama should be able to walk in and out of Kyle Field with a victory fairly easily. An over/under at 61.0 (-110) says a lot about the strength of this Alabama team if they can shut teams down yet still make a total as high as this one.

Prediction

#1 Alabama: 35

#24 Texas A&M: 20

Guaranteed Touchdown Scorer: Jerry Jeudy

Dart Throw Touchdown Scorer: Kendrick Rodgers 

#10 Penn State at #17 Iowa

These are the 2nd and 3rd ranked scoring defenses in all of college football. Allowing 7.4 and 8.8 points per game respectively, Penn State and Iowa will be a battle in the trenches. The only difference is that Penn State has a great offense (11th overall in terms of yards per game) and Iowa isn’t even in the top-50. 

Iowa was able to hold a ranked Michigan team to 10 points last week, but they only scored 3 points themselves. If they can somehow do the same this week to a better team in Penn State, they’ll at least have an outside shot of winning.

Penn State is a small favorite (-170) in a game that sportsbooks expect to be close (+3.5 spread at -115). With an over/under of 42.5, this game seems like a good spot to take the under. Despite the Penn State offense being so good, I’m a believer in the Iowa defense to keep this game close and under 40 total points.

Prediction

#10 Penn State: 17

#17 Iowa: 14

Guaranteed Touchdown Scorer: Noah Cain

Dart Throw Touchdown Scorer: Nico Ragaini

#7 Florida at #5 LSU

Last week… and in previous weeks… I expressed my dismay with this Florida team. But, they keep proving me wrong. So, that being said, you may decide to fade my insight on this Florida and LSU game. But, I am taking LSU to win this game! LSU has the 2nd best offense in all of college football in terms of yardage and is 1st in terms of points scored. Even though Florida has the 5th ranked scoring defense, I think the LSU offense has more firepower. Joe Burrow is a legit Heisman candidate and he and Justin Jefferson are arguably the most dynamic duo we have seen on the gridiron all season. LSU allows more points than Florida per game, but about the same amount of yardage. This LSU team has a real threat to win the National Championship this season, unlike Florida.

Sportsbooks agree with me on this one as LSU is the favorite (-550) and by 13 points as well (-115)! Despite the Florida defense being so good, the over/under is still at 56 (-110) which is a sign that this LSU offense is legit. I’ve been wrong about Florida before, but they simply cannot continue to escape with victories against superior teams.

Prediction

#7 Florida: 24

#5 LSU: 48

Guaranteed Touchdown Scorer: Justin Jefferson

Dart Throw Touchdown Scorer: Lamical Perine

Conclusion

I’m looking forward to a great weekend of college football! How about you? Let me know in the comments below!

-Mitchell Seefeldt

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