Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Arrowhead Stadium

Kansas City, MO

Betting

The Chiefs enter tonight’s game as massive favorites to win. The spread is currently -11 (-105) in favor of the Chiefs and the Moneyline is -620. With 2 bad defenses on our hands, the Over/Under is set at 56 at the time of writing. My only action on this game is a 2-game, 7-point teaser with the total being over 48.5 in this one and the Vikings +1.5 against the Giants. This Colts team is better than people think and I see the spread as a trap in tonight’s game. 

Injuries

For the home team Chiefs, they enter tonight’s game relatively healthy. Tyreek Hill remains out but we could see him playing again as soon as next week. Damien Williams and Sammy Watkins are both listed as questionable but are expected to play tonight. On defense, Alex Okafor is questionable so we could see a healthy dose of Emmanuel Ogbah on the D-line. Also, backup linebacker Dorian O’Daniel is ruled out.

For the visitors, the Colts could be without their 2 biggest weapons. Both Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton are questionable to play and this could be the Colts downfall tonight. With Parris Campbell already ruled out, we could see a lot of 2 TE sets for the Colts in order to get some established names on the field. On defense, the Colts are in bad shape. Both starting safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers are out and backup Rolan Milligan is questionable. Pair that with cornerback Rock Ya-Sin being listed as questionable and the Colts are thin in pass defenders in a game against the Chiefs high-powered offense. If the secondary health issues weren’t enough, starting linebackers Darius Leonard and Anthony Walker are both out and questionable, respectfully.

Chiefs Offense vs. Colts Defense

The NFL MVP from last season, Patrick Mahomes, is off to an unbelievable start this year. Mahomes is nearly averaging 400 yards passing a game even without his top target, Tyreek Hill. However, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins continue to prove that they belong in the discussion as best in the league at their respective positions. Also, the emergence of Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman is proving to us that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is unfair. If the passing attack was not enough, the rebirth of LeSean McCoy paired with the Williams tandem (Damien and Darrel) is making the Chiefs a well-rounded offense. The Chiefs average over 33 points a game and will look to attack the injury-riddled Colts defense.

The Colts are without their only players that have intercepted passes this year which puts them at an even bigger disadvantage against Mahomes. If that wasn’t enough, the team only has 9 sacks this season and the guys that have the majority of those sacks are injured as well. Teams are not passing the ball for a ton of yards on this defense but that can be because of game script. Teams usually have the lead for a big portion of the game which is a result of why the Colts are allowing over 130 rushing yards per game. Justin Houston will have to be a game-wrecker in this one if the Colts want to slow down the Chiefs.

Colts Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

This Colts offense relies on Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton to handle a majority of the work between just the 2 of them (36.5% of total touches). Other than those 2, no one is a consistent threat on this Colts offense. A few guys have made some splash plays but nothing else. The Colts want Mack to carry the ball down the field until they have to throw, and when they do, they throw to Hilton. Thankfully for the Colts tonight, they play a Chiefs defense that is one of the worst in the entire NFL.

The Chiefs defense is not good. I really don’t have much else to add to that. They do not force turnovers or garner sacks against opponents. They allow nearly 430 yards a game to opponents but I suppose that is due to the high scoring nature of their offense. The Chiefs wouldn’t have to score over 33 points a game in order to win if their defense could force some stops. 

Prediction

Colts: 24

Chiefs: 36

Guaranteed Touchdown Scorer: Travis Kelce

Dart Throw Touchdown Scorer: Nyheim Hines

Conclusion

This looks like the Chiefs game to win unless their defense blows it. Who do you think will win? Let me know in the comments below!

-Mitchell Seefeldt

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