Philidelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay, WI
The Packers are currently the favorite to win tonight’s game as they sit at -210 on the Moneyline and -4.5 (-105) on the spread. With the Over/Under at 46.5 (-115 under), this looks to be a fairly low-scoring game. Some interesting tidbits via Oddshark.com, the underdogs and the under are undefeated through 3 weeks this season. If that trend holds true, the Eagles will win and the total will be under 46.5 points. However, the eye test tells me that this Packers team is simply a better team tonight. The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL this year in 1st half points scored whereas the Eagles are among the bottom dwellers. I like the Packers in a 1H spread bet at -3.5 (+100) but am avoiding the full game bets due to recent Thursday Night trends and the Eagles ability to perform better than most teams in the 2nd half so far this season.
The undefeated Packers look to enter tonight’s game fairly healthy compared to their opponent. On offense, starting LG Lane Taylor underwent bicep surgery and is out indefinitely meaning rookie Elgton Jenkins will be the starting LG going forward. Also, fan-favorite reserve receiver Jake Kumerow is trending towards being inactive for tonight’s game with a shoulder injury. Even if Kumerow plays, don’t expect a major impact by the 4th-string WR. On defense, the Packers d-line and front 7 looks to be in question. With starting lineman Montravious Adams and starting linebacker Oren Burks already ruled out, plus the status of fellow impact linebackers Za’Darious Smith and Kyler Fackrell in question… phew boy. Rookies Rashan Gary, Kingsley Keke, and Ty Summers could be in line for an extended run tonight.
For the Eagles, the good news is Alshon Jeffrey looks to ready to return from injury. The bad news, however, is that fellow wideout DeSean Jackson is already ruled out for tonight’s game. Also on offense, stud backup lineman Jordan Mailata was placed on IR and sparingly used RB Corey Clement is listed as questionable despite a full-practice session logged yesterday. On defense, D-lineman Malik Jefferson was placed on IR a couple of weeks ago and now his replacement, Tim Jernigan, is ruled out for tonight’s game. In the secondary, the Eagles will be without Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills. With 2 of their top corners out against the Packers… a bad secondary will most likely be exposed.
Packers Offense vs. Eagles Defense
This Packers offense is just what we all expected, only not as good. The numbers may be skewed due to rough Week 1 matchup against Chicago but the Packers are averaging only 305 yards of offense per game. We’re used to seeing Aaron Rodgers hit that amount by himself. With Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling being the only one truly making an impact, Rodgers might be able to get the other pass-catchers more involved in the offense. Notably, starting receiver Geronimo Allison only has 24 receiving yards on the season. Also, the committee of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are averaging a combined 87 yards on the ground per game. For a team that plays with the lead, the running game needs to be much more effective. The good news for tonight’s game is that the Eagles secondary is in shambles which means the Packers should not feel forced to run the ball.
The Eagles defense is exceptional at stopping the run as they only allow 57 yards on the ground per game. That’s the 2nd best number in all of football, but the Packers are already not that good at running the ball so the stat is fairly moot. On the flip side, the Eagles passing defense is one of the very worst in the NFL and they’re facing Aaron Rodgers. The Eagles have forced 3 turnovers via INT or fumble this season and Ronald Darby, who is out for this game, has 1 of those turnovers. The Eagles might have to win a shoot-out in this game.
Eagles Offense vs. Packers Defense
This Eagles offense is pretty even when it comes to splits. Carson Wentz is throwing for more than 280 yards a game and the 3 RBs, (Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and Darren Sproles) are all effective in their specific roles. The team is averaging a little over 375 yards per game and are playing a Packers team that averages 354 yards allowed. Even though big-play receiver DeSean Jackson is out for this game, superstar TE Zach Ertz and veteran receiver Alshon Jeffrey should be able to handle lots of passes over the middle against a depleted Packers linebacker corps. Nelson Agholor has filled in nicely for Jackson but he has a problem with drops, something that is important for a receiver to not do.
Forcing turnovers is the name of the game for the Packers. The Packers have forced 4 INTs and recovered 4 fumbles so far this season. Superstar corner Jaire Alexander is always tasked with removing the top receiving threat for opposing teams, so his one of the few players without a turnover forced. What Alexander does is equally as important as forcing turnovers in my opinion. By eliminating one half of the field, opposing teams will have to throw the ball to less desirable options. With other members of secondary tasked with forcing turnovers, superstar linebacker Blake Martinez is tasked with securing tackles. If Za’Darious Smith misses this game, turnovers may be hard to come by because Smith is one of the teams best pass rushers. Without him pressuring Wentz, the Eagles may have time to stand in the pocket work the ball to Ertz.
Guaranteed Touchdown Scorer: Davante Adams
Dart Throw Touchdown Scorer: Robert Tonyan / Darren Sproles
What do you think of tonight’s battle between NFC hopefuls? Who do you think will win tonight’s game and what will the score be? Let me know in the comments down below!